While the headline of this article may seem like an entry in The New Republic's Boring Headline Competition, or the obviousness of something in The Onion, it actually is a phenomena that will have very important consequences for the law. At the February 2002 Intel Developer Forum Conference, Patrick Gelsinger, Intel's Chief Technology Officer, strongly reiterated the claim that Moore's Law will continue to hold true for at least another 25 years (Patrick Gelsinger Keynote - IDF Spring 2002). According to Mr. Gelsinger, by 2010 30GHz processors built using a 10 nanometer (or less) die will deliver a terra instruction of performance in desktop systems. Mr. Gelsinger also predicts the commercial availability of tri-band wireless handhelds/phones that will have 5GHz processors. On March 22, 2002, Bell Labs' scientists set new record for long-distance data transmission by sending 2.6 terabits (trillion bits) 4,000 miles (Lucent Technologies' Bell Labs scientists set new fiber optic transmission record). Last year, IBM led the way in increasing hard drive storage capacity with its announcement of "pixie dust" technology (IBM's 'Pixie Dust' Breakthrough to Quadruple Disk Drive Density). Increases in hard drive storage capacity, which has been growing at a rate exceeding Moore's Law, will soon result in standard home computers coming equipped with 400GByte hard drives. Portable storage media, such as "Compact Flash" cards for use in digital cameras and MP3 players, is also increasing in capacity at a high rate according to PC World (Mighty Mini Media) (thanks to the The Shifted Librarian).
Why is this important to lawyers (or anyone who cares about the law)? These technological advances are going to continue to rock our world.
What all these articles point to is that the digital revolution is far from over; at best we're only at the "end of the beginning." It cannot be emphasized enough that technological advances in each of these categories are follwing an exponential progression. What this means is that what the future holds is not merely a simple change in quantity, but a shift in quality. Early computers went from being glorified adding machines that only governments could afford, to the desktop ... where only accountants and the dedicated could work with text-based command driven interfaces. A few more years of exponential progression followed and desktop PCs were powerful enough to run graphical user interfaces, making them useful for the rest of us.
We are in the midst of such qualitative shifts today. Hard disk storage space, once a precious commodity, is becoming abundant and cheap. A 160GB drive (capable of storing months worth of music or several days worth of video) can be purchased from major retailers for $250. Not only has this changed the face of the music industry, but it is completely transforming the linear experience of television. In 1999, when the first digital media recorders (PMRs) were put on the consumer market, ReplayTV sold a 40-hour recorder for $1500. Just over two years later the ReplayTV 4320 model, which stores 320-hours (nearly two weeks) of television broadcasts, is available for a similar price. Five years ago, the concept of consumer access to non-linear video storage systems was visionary. Today it scaring the bejeezus out of the broadcast television industry.
Of course, what really scares the broadcast television industry is not simply increased storage capacity, but bandwidth which permits consumers to share what they've stored. Home networking, once the realm of technophiles, is rapidly growing as network friendly software and hardware become more common. Wireless protocols such as 802.11a eliminate the need for homeowners to install CAT-5 cable throughout their home and new software (such as the very network friendly Windows XP) make connecting new devices nearly as simple as plugging in an appliance. Moreover the trends are that everything is going to get even easier and cheaper.
I didn't specifically mention other advances such as wireless technology and location technology, because in many ways they are part of the bandwidth and processing power revolution. Silicon is cheap and getting cheaper. Everything that can use digital technology (and many things that can't) will come with chips. When sophisticated processors (like the one you are using to read this) cost less than $20, it suddenly is not unreasonable to add a chip to a nice pair of tennis shoes (assuming there is some purpose to be served). A GPS receiver and wireless connection will also be embedded in that chip, so just about anything will soon be able to have its own computer, know where it is and talk to other computers in the vicinity. What will this mean? If I knew, do you think I would be posting it here? Seriously, it means that new ways of living our life are just around the corner.
The advances that are already here are having a tremendous impact on law, technology and policy. The news is expect the trend to continue for some time.