About a week ago C|Net News ran a very interesting analysis piece on the Digital Media Recorder market (I use the term DMR because the systems will not only record video, but other media - primarily music - as well) (DVRs tune in to integration). The article notes that while consumer satisfaction with DMRs is very high (once you've tried one you won't want to go back), they haven't been selling as well as expected. One issue lowering sales is the requirement by the market leader (TiVo) for a large one time or monthly subscription fee for programming guides. Frankly, electronic programming guides should be free, but that isn't the main reason the systems aren't selling. The main problem seems to be consumer education. People don't realize the benefits of DMRs until they've used one. The solution? Integration, adding DMR technology to existing product lines, such as the television itself.
There is a real possibility for integration, but it ain't going to happen...
Integration is one of the answers and makes a lot of sense. For example, DMRs are already bundled with some cable and satellite decoder boxes. There are some technical issues for futher integration. Televisions nowadays don't break very often (television repair people get less work than that Maytag guy) and integrated DMRs may reduce that reliability. Also, people aren't used to having to upgrade their televisions. Still, these problems will be relatively easy to overcome.
What is strange though is that companies like Sony are busy developing some fairly worthless additions to DMR technology that aren't going to increase adoption at all, such as "MyCast", which allows you to program your DMR from your cellphone. This is dumb integration and makes little sense (who is going to buy a DMR because of cellphone programming capability?). Here's an idea: why not integrate DMRs with the hottest selling consumer electronics device out there? The New York Times (reg. req.) reports that DVD players are one of the most successful devices ever (Revolt in the Den: DVD Sends the VCR Packing to the Attic). According to Warren Lieberfarb, president of Warner Home Video:
In five years, it [DVD] has gone from zero to 30 million households, and a quarter of those have more than one DVD player. Nothing else has come close to doing that in such a short time, not CD's, not VCR's, not personal computers, not even television itself.
Here's an even better idea, combine the DMR with a DVD recorder. You would be able to record your favorite shows and then burn them to a recordable DVD for permanent storage. The system would also play regular DVDs. This is an obvious candidate for integration and convergence and would likely be highly successful in the marketplace. Oh wait, Hollywood wouldn't like that, so TiVo won't permit it and anyone else who does it will be sued. My bad.